Nate Silver and the other data driven experts just took us
for a nice ride on the Titanic. Mistaken predictions piled so high we
couldn't see the iceberg directly in front of us.
And the ultimate disaster is that we now have a sinking
feeling notwithstanding all the polls which reveal that Hillary will win
in a landslide. There is the sense that predicting the level of
animosity towards the Democratic frontrunner or the fervor that will
propel the candidacy of Mr. Trump is not knowable by scientific
calculation. That we underestimate the power of Donald at our peril.
The Nates (Cohn and Silver) and the other collectors of the
"tells" that reveal our inner truths, will have to shake this off,
climb back on board and try to right the ship in what surely shapes up
as a titanic struggle this fall. They should just remember to wear their
life jackets this time.
1 comment:
Bottom line - do not underestimate the "Don". The second bottom line - do not underestimate the ignorance of the American public.
The third bottom line - do not underestimate journalists hungry for ratings. The fourth bottom line - do not underestimate the pollsters who do not adhere to the adage, "garbage in, garbage out". The fifth bottom line - I think you've gotten my point(s) by now!!
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